Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, engineered by China in March, received a mostly favorable reception, with analysts suggesting that the process of normalization could alleviate regional tensions and pave the way for a tangible reduction of hostilities between Riyadh and Teheran. Some possibilities that have been aired include a cessation of Iran's interventions in Bahrain, Saudi capital infusions into Iran, and the promotion of nuclear non-proliferation.
But Saudi-Iranian relations are governed solely by self-interest and driven by the intricacies of geopolitics in the region and the emergence of a multipolar global paradigm. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran still aspire to be regional powerhouses and principal actors in this evolving multipolar order. China’s role in bringing them together is itself principally geopolitical. It is intended to improve China’s position in its long struggle with the United States. Whatever peace effects it might have are all to the good, but they were not the point. Neither Iran nor Saudi is especially weary of conflict. The rapprochement is part of a complex power struggle, not an embrace of peace.
It is up to Saudi and Iran to demonstrate that there is any substance to the agreement. A crucial aspect that has yet to be adequately addressed is the establishment of some foundation of trust between the two nations. Considering their enduring rivalry and a historical backdrop riddled with mutual mistrust, Saudi Arabia and Iran both need to demonstrate some dedication to resolving their differences and participating in productive discourse together. Such efforts have not yet materialized, and until they do, the prevailing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East will persist unchanged, despite the purported reconciliation.
While there may be a convergence of interests in defying the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran have very different objectives in the region. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) harbors a grand vision of reshaping not only the face of Saudi Arabia within the Middle East but also its standing on the global stage. MBS's decrees are unquestionable in the kingdom; Saudi foreign policy is inextricable from his ambitions. MBS has shown no intention of relinquishing power or engaging in conflict de-escalation. Foremost on his agenda is elevating Saudi Arabia to the status of a preeminent power in the Middle East, employing any means necessary to achieve this objective.
The pursuit of hosting the World Cup in 2030 stands as a prominent testament to Saudi Arabia's endeavor to foster international engagement. This initiative, alongside notable undertakings such as the Neom project and the establishment of a desert-based ski resort, exemplifies Saudi Arabia's transformative policy trajectory. But the global battles over Saudi Arabia’s alternative golf league show that much of the world is unwilling to do much more than humor Saudi episodes of over-spending.
Iran’s attachment to the deal is costless. Its gradual movement toward Russia and China is propelled by many factors but peace is not one of them. Iran has chosen this paper peace as a way to position itself better in its struggle with its enemies.
‘’The new era’’ hailed by diplomats of both states is as thin as a straw, for it is sustained by temporary interests and untested alliances in a changing geopolitical landscape that cannot be predicted by anyone, and certainly cannot be controlled by two relatively minor players.