How Putin Goes
The speed with which, in handling Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group insurrection, Vladimir Putin went from bluster to bargaining led many analysts to declare that his weakness had been exposed and his demise would arrive soon. But Putin's departure from power is not forthcoming in the near future. The convergence of the interests that fortify Putin's existing system is robust and compelling. Putin is currently consolidating his position in preparation for elections in 2024.
In March, a year after his invasion of Ukraine, Putin's popularity remained very high, with an approval rating surpassing 80%, as indicated by a survey conducted by Levada, an independent Russian research organization. In some ways, recent developments fortified Putin's position: disloyal individuals have been exposed and purged. Sources closely associated with the general staff and the security services confirmed that General Sergey Surovikin was interrogated, while three undisclosed U.S. officials reported that Surovikin possessed prior knowledge of Prigozhin's plot to incite rebellion against Russia's military leadership.
Undeniably, Russia’s internal security crisis has eroded Putin’s stature on the global stage. But this erosion is more likely to push him to further provocative actions than to lead him to withdraw from the scene. The confluence of this crisis with the annual NATO summit (11 July) in Vilnius raises the prospect of potential assertive responses from Putin.
At home, Putin is very practiced at adjusting his authoritarianism to circumstances. He has learned from observing his Syrian ally, Bashar Al Assad, and the way in which his neighbor Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended his power in 2016. Rather than destabilizing the prevailing authoritarian regime, the Wagner coup is poised to reinforce and perpetuate authoritarianism through the adoption of novel strategies and practices.
Prigozhin, however, is not going to go away quietly. His security-oriented mindset is firmly grounded in profit-seeking. It is inconceivable that someone of Prigozhin's disposition could accept that the Russian Ministry of Defense would assimilate his Wagner troops by formalizing their involvement through contractual agreements, transforming them into an official component of the Russian military. His army is his business, one he is most likely to keep vital in Africa. Enterprises such as Lobaye Invest in the Central African Republic and M-Invest, along with its subsidiary Meroe Gold in Sudan, have emerged as key players involved in resource exploitation, controlling significant mining concessions. Several have recently been granted long-term extensions, further solidifying their hold on valuable resources. Wagner has rights to the Ndassima mine in the Central African Republic through a comprehensive 25-year contract with potential for extension. Prigozhin is resolute in his reluctance to relinquish any aspect of this expansive enterprise.
Of course, Putin and Prigozhin are both mortal as well as rich in enemies. But violent deaths aside, they will find ways to survive in the brutal world they know so well.