Turkey’s Autocrat Shifts the Balance
During the NATO summit in July 2023, a sudden change in policy was announced: Turkey would not veto the application by Sweden for admission. In apparent exchange, Turkey would receive F-16s from the United States along with access to advanced upgrades for its existing F-16s. As part of a “general normalization and improvement” of relations with the EU as well as with the United States, Sweden would work closely with Turkey on “counter-terrorism.” Turkish accession talks with the EU would resume, along with discussions about the Turkish role in the European Customs Union and the possibility of visa-free travel for Turks to the 27 countries of the Schengen Area.
The news was generally received in the Western press with a mixture of delight, incredulity, and suspicion, especially as Erdoğan had repeatedly denounced the behavior of the West during his campaign to win the presidential election of May 2023. How could a country, or at least a president, alter his course so suddenly and so dramatically?
One point to bear in mind is that capriciousness is part of Erdoğan’s autocratic style. The persona that he affects as a political leader is often volatile and irascible. He frequently berates Turkey’s citizens, shouting at them as a disappointed and exasperated father while he castigates other nations and their leaders for their failure to treat Turkey, Turks, or Muslims in general with the respect he believes they deserve.
As second point is that autocratic caprice has been part of modern Turkish political tradition. Since the founding of the republic in 1923, Turkish politicians have rarely hesitated to embark on ambitious programs of social engineering. The first president, Kemal Atatürk, transformed the subjects of the sultan into citizens of a new secular society, changing their clothing, their names, their alphabet, and their language. Erdoğan was intent on promoting a revolution in attitudes toward the history of the Turkish nation and especially the Ottoman Empire, the last and greatest of the Muslim empires, which collapsed in the aftermath of the First World War. He was determined that it would no longer be seen as an embarrassment.
This affected foreign policy. Under Erdoğan, Turkish strategists became increasingly interested in extending their reach into lands that the Ottomans had lost, or into regions they had not controlled but were nonetheless seen as part of the wider Turkic world of Central Asia. Since the 19th century, of course, Central Asia had been under the control of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. Indeed, Russia still assumes that the Central Asian republics remain within its sphere of influence. But, many Uzbeks, Kazakhs, and other inhabitants of the region are increasingly inclined to disagree, seeing Russia as an imperial power to be resisted.
As Russia weakens, strategists in Ankara have become aware that the opportunity to realize the Pan-Turkic dream of the late 19th and early 20th century is growing, especially if it is understood in terms of the “soft power” implied by closer cultural and economic ties. Even when relations with Russia seem relatively cordial, therefore, it is not seen in Turkey as an ally. Although it is not really an enemy, at least at the moment, it will definitely be seen as a rival and an obstacle.
It should be emphasized that a pan-Turkic Central Asia is not just a romantic fantasy. A region in which Chinese, Iranian, and Russian areas of influence meet is undoubtedly of strategic interest for the United States. America’s rivals possess far more extensive ties than its bureaucrats or corporate executives could hope to acquire by themselves; Turks, therefore, are ideally positioned to support American aspirations if they so choose. Turkish religious, linguistic, and cultural affinities have existed for many centuries and Turkey is not only an American ally but also a member of NATO. This gives it a status to exploit in the former Ottoman lands.
Erdoğan is sometimes misunderstood as merely an Islamist politician. It is more accurate to say he recalls the fusion of Islam and Turkish nationalism that was encouraged by Kenan Evren and the generals who led the coup in 1980 against the ineffective coalition of Süleyman Demirel. This is one of the reasons why his alliance with the MHP on the far right of the political spectrum has not diminished the support that he receives from more conservative or traditional Muslims. He offers something that very different sections of Turkish society can admire, or at least support in elections.
Turkish neo-Ottoman nationalism is enough to get Erdoğan his electoral majorities, however slim (just 4% in 2023). His reversal of position on Sweden and NATO in July was a sign of how much Erdoğan values Turkey’s membership in the alliance, not because of any shared values but because it could serve, in the moment, his strategic goal of neo-Ottoman revival. Erdoğan has long since proved he can provoke the West; that was always just one stage in a broader agenda.